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Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation

120K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.0%

45%60%
Floor53.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.

Measured over 120K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 8.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 120K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
120K
Best context
57.2% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
49.8% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
91.2%
Draws
8.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.0% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 52.6%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (430 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (173 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (970 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,740 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (2,689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (88 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (3,018 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,277 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,798 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,002 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (7,526 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (3,008 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (217 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (4,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (10,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,965 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (3,948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (13,014 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (2,736 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (5,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (12,950 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (1,842 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (5,506 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (6,067 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,080 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (248 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 54.2% — from 120K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
120K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation, White wins 49.6%, draws 8.8% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 120K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.4% (20K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.2% in Blitz (69K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (19K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 91.2 (decisive), meaning 91.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 30.8%, draws 45.3% and loses 24.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 49 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.6%, draws 9.6% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.3%, draws 7.8% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 69K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.4%, draws 9.9% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 41.3%, draws 24.4% and loses 34.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 41.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.