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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense

10M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 45.4%Based on 10M games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 45.4%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%3.6%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
Analyzen=10M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.4% and 45.4%), based on 10M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...c5 · Black wins: 49.0% · n=3.2M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.0% win rate (304,146 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (753,570 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.3% win rate (1,386,790 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.0% win rate (2,042,679 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.6% win rate (2,382,346 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.0% win rate (2,021,505 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.1% win rate (978,545 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.2% win rate (339,416 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (35,499 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.1% win rate (22,477 games)
  • Bullet: 44.3% win rate (3,879,775 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (4,773,037 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (1,509,706 games)
  • Classical: 40.1% win rate (59,501 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (252 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (86,774 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (160,127 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (56,691 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (814 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (226,872 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (377,687 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (146,176 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (2,021 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (2,227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (432,611 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (680,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (262,153 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (9,035 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (6,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (641,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,013,172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (362,902 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (18,641 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (7,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (825,256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (1,179,990 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (351,324 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (18,710 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (3,432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (816,529 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (949,402 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (242,910 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (9,232 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,433 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (549,920 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (348,453 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (77,271 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (1,468 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (383 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (267,291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (61,526 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (10,124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (92 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (33,414 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (1,916 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (155 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit
49.9%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 10M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (35K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (54.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.1%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 304K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 754K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 979K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 339K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.6%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.0%) win rate for white (3.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.6%) win rate for white (4.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white (1.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.2%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.