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Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense

10M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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h8
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2...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor45.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 10M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
10M
Best context
49.4% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
34.1% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...c5 · Black wins: 49.0% · 3.2M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.0% at 0-999, 34.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (252 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (86,774 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (160,127 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (56,691 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (814 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (226,872 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (377,687 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (146,176 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (2,021 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (2,227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (432,611 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (680,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (262,153 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (9,035 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (6,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (641,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,013,172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (362,902 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (18,641 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (7,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (825,256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (1,179,990 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (351,324 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (18,710 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (3,432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (816,529 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (949,402 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (242,910 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (9,232 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,433 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (549,920 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (348,453 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (77,271 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (1,468 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (383 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (267,291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (61,526 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (10,124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (92 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (33,414 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (1,916 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (155 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit
49.9%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 45.4% — from 10M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
10M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 10M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 47.5% (304K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.4% in Blitz (4.8M games) against 44.8% in Rapid (1.5M games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 304K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 754K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 2.0M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 2.4M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 2.0M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 979K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 339K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 3.9M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 4.8M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.6% of its games and loses 52.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.