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Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit

172K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.8%

40%55%
Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.

Measured over 172K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 172K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
172K
Best context
50.5% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
40.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −3.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.8% at 0-999, 38.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (356 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (225 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (606 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (175 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,900 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (6,198 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (672 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (461 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (13,526 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (6,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (494 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (26,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (12,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,292 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (319 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (32,460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (11,706 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (31,938 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (5,679 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (8,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (784 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit scores 47.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 48.0% — from 172K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
172K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 172K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (42K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (5.2K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 654 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.3%, draws 9.1% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 123K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.9%, draws 14.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 224 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.