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Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense

2.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.0%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 45.1%Based on 2.8M games
0%45.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 45.1%
Outcome Distribution
43.3%3.4%53.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...dxc4
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
Analyzen=2.8M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 45.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 45.1%), based on 2.8M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.0% win rate (148,316 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.3% win rate (295,307 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.4% win rate (445,202 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.4% win rate (582,123 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.5% win rate (601,794 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (460,630 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.4% win rate (203,414 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.0% win rate (65,329 games)
  • 2500+: 39.1% win rate (6,432 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (44%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.9% win rate (10,144 games)
  • Bullet: 44.3% win rate (1,355,909 games)
  • Blitz: 42.8% win rate (1,176,534 games)
  • Rapid: 41.0% win rate (256,849 games)
  • Classical: 35.4% win rate (9,111 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (583 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (60,033 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (64,847 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (22,710 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (143 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (1,405 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (135,086 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (121,307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (36,823 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.0% expected score (686 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (2,357 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (206,503 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (186,220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (48,275 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (1,847 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.8% expected score (3,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (266,803 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (252,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (56,660 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (2,909 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (1,804 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (277,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (269,223 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (51,355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (2,240 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (465 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (229,856 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (198,059 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (31,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.0% expected score (159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (128,965 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (65,487 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (8,620 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 22.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (46,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (17,716 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (1,175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (5,102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,272 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Continuations (8)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation
50.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Janowski Variation
54.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit
56.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Main Line
50.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Lazard Gambit
51.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Tartakower Gambit
51.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line
53.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Main Line, Alekhine Variation
53.8%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (295K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (59.9%) outperforms Bullet (53.2%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 148K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 295K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 445K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 582K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 602K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 461K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 203K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 59.9% (90% CI: 59.1%-60.7%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.2%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.2%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.5%-54.8%) win rate for white (257K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a 59.7% (90% CI: 58.8%-60.5%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.