Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
2.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 2.8M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.8M
- Best context
- 51.7% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 35.0% at 1000-1199 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 45.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (583 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (60,033 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (64,847 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (22,710 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (143 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (1,405 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (135,086 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (121,307 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (36,823 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.0% expected score (686 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (2,357 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (206,503 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (186,220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (48,275 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (1,847 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.8% expected score (3,348 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (266,803 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (252,403 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (56,660 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (2,909 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (1,804 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (277,172 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (269,223 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (51,355 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (2,240 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (465 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (229,856 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (198,059 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (31,199 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (1,051 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.0% expected score (159 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (128,965 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (65,487 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (8,620 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (183 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 22.3% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (46,389 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (17,716 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (1,175 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (5,102 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,272 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense scores 45.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.0% and 45.1% — from 2.8M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.8M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Black wins 43.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.8M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 45.5% (148K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.9% in Blitz (1.2M games) against 43.2% in Rapid (257K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 295K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 445K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 582K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 602K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 461K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 203K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.1%, draws 9.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 38.9%, draws 1.2% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 257K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 35.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 59.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.3% of its games and loses 53.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.