Queen's Gambit Declined
9.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 9.7M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.7M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 9.7M
- Best context
- 50.0% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 39.7% at 2200-2499 Classical
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.0% at 0-999, 40.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (286 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (66,011 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (107,944 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (35,346 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (213 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (876 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (184,920 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (269,716 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (85,408 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (1,249 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (1,994 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (355,681 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (551,962 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (168,239 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (5,774 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (5,603 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (545,561 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (902,113 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (276,190 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (14,285 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (5,909 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (685,234 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,162,473 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (340,641 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (19,130 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (2,049 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (652,372 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,094,539 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (308,852 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (15,347 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (683 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (456,456 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (595,292 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (139,904 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (3,851 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (511 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (288,756 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (234,418 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (31,872 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (523 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 32.7% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (66,247 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (25,661 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (1,392 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (82 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 46.9% — from 9.7M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 9.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 9.7M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (210K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (4.9M games) against 47.4% in Rapid (1.4M games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined?
The Queen's Gambit Declined has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 210K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 542K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 6.5% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 556K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.8%, draws 10.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.3M Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 4.9M Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.6% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.