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Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.2%

45%60%
Floor53.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.0M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.0M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.0M
Best context
61.2% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
51.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.2% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.5%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (5,754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (7,808 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (2,578 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (21,837 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (22,359 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (7,649 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (222 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (49,467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (51,463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (15,429 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (459 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (91,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (104,016 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (27,208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (153,826 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (191,365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (40,646 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (2,797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (188,211 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (261,695 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (51,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (165,064 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (223,710 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (35,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (1,192 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (142,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (110,181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (12,405 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (320 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (37,972 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (12,993 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (650 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (63 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.3% — from 2.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (52K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (986K games) against 53.3% in Rapid (194K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 225K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 390K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 505K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 425K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 265K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.8%, draws 8.3% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 55.8%, draws 1.6% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 856K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 986K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 194K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.