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Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation

945K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.5%

40%55%
Floor44.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.6%.

Measured over 945K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 945K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
945K
Best context
47.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
39.9% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.3% at 0-999, 40.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (3,777 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (4,483 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,206 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (80 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (15,747 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (12,866 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (3,758 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (294 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (37,692 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (26,376 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (6,707 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (69,711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (48,660 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (10,050 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (443 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (119,683 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (71,584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (11,092 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (732 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (144,054 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (73,014 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (9,702 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (292 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (108,006 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (40,326 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (4,396 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (103 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 33.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (70,393 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (21,846 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (18,408 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (4,059 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (357 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (201 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.4% and 44.6% — from 945K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
945K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 945K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 46.3% (94K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.5% in Blitz (303K games) against 43.8% in Rapid (49K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 204K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 228K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 153K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 9.9% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 40.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 587K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 303K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.2%, draws 10.8% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.6% of its games and loses 53.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.