2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 47.7%), based on 2.4M Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 49% → 44%
Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Bullet (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (97K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (46.8%) by 4.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 224K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 403K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 559K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 595K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 350K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.9%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.7%) win rate for white (978K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate for white (266K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.6%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.