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Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.7%

40%55%
Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.4M
Best context
54.4% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
46.5% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 46.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (10,756 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13,762 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (3,739 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (165 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (37,383 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (46,980 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (12,347 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (744 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (81,262 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (111,995 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (29,160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (834 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (2,268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (143,683 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (200,944 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (53,877 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (2,190 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (2,333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (199,898 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (284,600 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (68,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (3,449 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (222,197 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (303,711 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (65,528 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (2,888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (175,029 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (145,657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (28,713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (635 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (94,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (28,054 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (3,697 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (13,020 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 47.7% — from 2.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.9% (28K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (1.1M games) against 48.8% in Rapid (266K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 224K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 403K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 559K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 595K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 350K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 126K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 978K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 266K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.6%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.7% of its games and loses 50.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.