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Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation

488K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.4%

45%55%
Floor51.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.

Measured over 488K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 488K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
488K
Best context
56.4% at 1800-1999 Classical
Worst context
46.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.3% at 0-999, 54.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,236 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (936 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (6,690 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (4,761 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (809 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (17,777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (17,130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (2,917 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (34,019 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (40,741 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (7,695 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (253 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (50,059 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (63,119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (12,300 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (51,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (57,911 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (12,357 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (511 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (34,867 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25,575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (5,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (22,067 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (9,090 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (1,111 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,064 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation scores 51.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.5% — from 488K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
488K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 488K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (5.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (220K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (43K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 126K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.1%, draws 6.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.7%, draws 9.2% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 480 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 223K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 220K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.6%, draws 7.2% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.0% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.