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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.1%

45%60%
Floor54.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.

Measured over 1.2M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.2M
Best context
57.4% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
52.0% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.6% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.2% at 0-999, 56.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (4,171 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (5,498 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,699 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (16,463 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (22,842 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (107 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (129 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (36,443 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (62,833 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (18,415 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (428 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.9% expected score (390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (62,496 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (118,960 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (36,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (1,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (674 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (75,286 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (157,827 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (46,915 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (2,686 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (68,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (146,861 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (42,025 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (2,221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (49,077 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (76,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (19,483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (28,876 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (28,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (3,524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (5,560 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (2,711 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (120 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (3)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line
49.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense
48.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation
51.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation scores 54.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.0% and 54.2% — from 1.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.2% (8.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.4% in Blitz (622K games) against 55.0% in Rapid (175K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 118K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 220K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 283K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 260K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 9.2% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 347K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 622K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 175K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.8%, draws 6.9% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.9% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.