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Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense

583K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.5%

45%55%
Floor49.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.

Measured over 583K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 583K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
583K
Best context
53.8% at 0-999 Blitz
Worst context
44.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.3% at 0-999, 47.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,692 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (1,768 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (345 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (7,181 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,904 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,480 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (17,365 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (19,357 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (3,985 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (192 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (29,080 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (39,612 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (9,345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (424 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (267 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (44,365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (62,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (15,372 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (995 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (55,661 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (65,194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (17,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (48,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (41,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (9,117 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (347 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (38,524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (23,313 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (3,017 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (125 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (10,730 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,016 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (669 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (188 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (6)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation
49.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation
46.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation
47.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Symmetrical Variation
50.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line
52.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation
42.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense scores 49.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.4% and 49.6% — from 583K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
583K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 583K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (3.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (265K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (61K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 79K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 139K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 33.2%, draws 24.8% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 50 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 803 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 253K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 265K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.1%, draws 13.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.7% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.