Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation
53K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.8%.
Measured over 53K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 9.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 53K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 53K
- Best context
- 55.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 49.0% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 90.5%
- Draws
- 9.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.4% at 0-999, 54.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.9% expected score (44 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (158 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (222 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (567 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (725 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (131 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,149 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,992 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (443 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,978 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,839 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,017 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (67 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,644 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (5,073 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,554 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (93 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2,489 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (5,938 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,286 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (53 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (4,035 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (10,317 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (983 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,167 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,910 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (290 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (125 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation scores 51.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.1% and 51.8% — from 53K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 53K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation, White wins 46.7%, draws 9.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 53K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (3.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (31K games) against 54.3% in Rapid (5.7K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 90.5 (decisive), meaning 90.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 409 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.8%, draws 7.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 45.5%, draws 10.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 40.5%, draws 24.3% and loses 35.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 48 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.4%, draws 8.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.5%, draws 9.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.9%, draws 10.7% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 40.7%, draws 31.8% and loses 27.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 400 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.7% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.