Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation
194K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.
Measured over 194K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 194K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 194K
- Best context
- 50.5% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.8% at 0-999, 39.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (352 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (319 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (87 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,402 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,192 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (310 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,447 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,666 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (869 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (29 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (6,279 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (9,312 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,175 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (105 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (10,498 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (18,699 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (4,095 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (317 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (12,737 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (25,806 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (6,206 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (487 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (11,773 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (24,476 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (4,982 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (227 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (11,476 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (20,000 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,023 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (48 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (5,310 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (5,257 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (214 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (65 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.4% — from 194K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 194K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation, Black wins 44.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 194K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (2.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (109K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (21K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.4%, draws 1.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 762 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.7%, draws 12.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 109K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.8%, draws 11.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.5% of its games and loses 50.2%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.