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Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation

9.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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6.Bf4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.9%

45%60%
Floor54.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.7%.

Measured over 9.0K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.0K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.0K
Best context
55.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
53.3% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
39 moves
Games that end decisively
93.6%
Draws
6.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.6% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 65.0% at 0-999, 54.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 72.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (740 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (848 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (576 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (802 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation scores 54.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.0% and 55.7% — from 9.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation, White wins 51.6%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 9.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.3% (3.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.4% in Blitz (5.3K games) against 58.1% in Rapid (943 games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 184 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 384 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 807 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.2%, draws 11.1% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 7.0% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 54.0%, draws 8.1% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 943 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.6% of its games and loses 41.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.