Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred
53K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.5%.
Measured over 53K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 53K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 53K
- Best context
- 58.5% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.6% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 41.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (84 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (43 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (335 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (258 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (52 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,157 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (1,401 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (183 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (2,407 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (4,390 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (797 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (3,714 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (8,732 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (1,801 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (62 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (3,907 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (9,671 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (2,026 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,923 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (4,582 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (845 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (1,581 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,744 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (201 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (227 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred scores 55.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.8% and 55.5% — from 53K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 53K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred, White wins 53.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 53K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (7.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 55.5% in Blitz (31K games) against 57.0% in Rapid (5.9K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.1%, draws 1.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 647 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 54.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 56.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 55.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 42.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 44.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 281 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 54.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 139 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.5% of its games and loses 43.3%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.