Tarrasch Defense
24 variations · 1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
49.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.
Measured over 1.9M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #19 of 62
- Games in this context
- 1.9M
- Best context
- 51.3% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 40.4% at 2500+ Rapid
- Variations measured
- 24
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 49.3%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (39 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (8,244 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (9,235 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (1,865 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (122 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (29,806 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (33,094 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (7,234 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (78 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (316 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (61,709 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (81,244 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (18,645 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (399 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (948 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (97,448 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (139,930 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (37,084 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (1,454 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (971 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (128,576 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (177,645 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (49,549 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (2,753 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (377 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (144,324 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (191,561 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (47,957 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (2,529 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (118,023 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (166,714 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (28,092 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (1,179 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (64 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (112,783 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (120,897 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (11,404 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (319 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (36,484 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (17,246 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (974 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (82 games)
24 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense family scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.2% — from 1.9M Lichess games across 24 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.9M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tarrasch Defense win rate?
Across the Tarrasch Defense's 24 variations, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.9M rated games from Lichess.
How many Tarrasch Defense variations are there?
24 Tarrasch Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense perform best?
The Tarrasch Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.9% (314K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Tarrasch Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Tarrasch Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.8% in Blitz (938K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (203K games).
How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense?
Tarrasch Defense games are 95.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Tarrasch Defense a good opening family?
The Tarrasch Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.6% and loses 48.5%. Results differ between its 24 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.