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Analyzer

Tarrasch Defense

24 variations · 1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Tarrasch Defense is balanced for White at 51.0% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 51.0%Aggregated from 24 variations
0%51.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 51.0%
ContextOverall · n=1.9M
Outcome Distribution
48.5%4.9%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Tarrasch Defense
Variations24
Games (Context)1.9M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate4.9%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Tarrasch Defense: Rubinstein SystemTop Pick
1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c5 4.cxd5 exd5 5.Nf3 Nc6 6.g3
Min adv +9.3% · n=7.6K
55.6%
#2Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Réti Variation
1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c5 4.cxd5 exd5 5.Nf3 Nc6 6.g3 Nf6 7.Bg2 Be7 8.O-O O-O 9.dxc5 Bxc5 10.Na4
Min adv +7.1% · n=8.6K
54.5%
#3Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation
1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c5 4.cxd5 exd5 5.Nf3
Min adv +4.0% · n=231K
52.2%
#4Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation
1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c5 4.cxd5 exd5 5.Nf3 Nc6 6.g3 Nf6 7.Bg2 Be7 8.O-O O-O 9.Bg5
Min adv +4.0% · n=18K
52.6%
#5Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit
1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c5 4.cxd5 exd5 5.e4
Min adv +4.0% · n=11K
52.8%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Tarrasch Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Tarrasch Defense family has a 51.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.9% and 51.0%), aggregated from 24 variations and 1.9M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (19,390 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (70,334 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (162,313 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (276,864 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.1% win rate (359,494 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (386,748 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (314,156 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (245,467 games)
  • 2500+: 47.8% win rate (54,789 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.3% win rate (2,988 games)
  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (737,397 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (937,566 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (202,804 games)
  • Classical: 48.4% win rate (8,800 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (8,244 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (9,235 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (29,806 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (33,094 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (7,234 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (78 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (316 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (61,709 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (81,244 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (18,645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (399 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (948 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (97,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (139,930 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (37,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (1,454 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (971 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (128,576 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (177,645 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (49,549 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (2,753 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (377 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (144,324 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (191,561 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (47,957 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (2,529 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (148 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (118,023 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (166,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (28,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (1,179 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (64 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (112,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (120,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (11,404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (36,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (17,246 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (974 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (82 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (24)

1
Tarrasch Defense: Rubinstein System7.6K games
55.6%
2
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Réti Variation8.6K games
54.5%
3
Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation32K games
53.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit530 games
56.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation10K games
53.4%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation69K games
52.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit11K games
52.8%
Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation231K games
52.2%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation18K games
52.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation11K games
52.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line8.0K games
52.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Symmetrical Variation614K games
51.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Petursson Variation1.3K games
53.0%
Tarrasch Defense682K games
50.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation4.3K games
51.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line2.9K games
50.4%
Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch39K games
49.2%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation17K games
49.2%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation1.1K games
50.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Schara Gambit106K games
48.2%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation967 games
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Classical Tarrasch Gambit3.7K games
47.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Tarrasch Gambit686 games
46.3%
Tarrasch Defense: von Hennig Gambit9.5K games
39.6%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense family has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.6%) win rate for white, aggregated from 24 variations and 1.9M rated games from Lichess.

How many Tarrasch Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 24 Tarrasch Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (70K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Tarrasch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.7%) outperforms Classical (48.4%) by 0.3% across all Tarrasch Defense variations.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense?

Tarrasch Defense games are 95.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Tarrasch Defense a good opening family?

The Tarrasch Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.6%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 24 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.