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Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 51.4%Based on 17K games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%9.2%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...c4
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation
Analyzen=17K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.2%

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 50.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 51.4%), based on 17K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.0% win rate (16 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.5% win rate (48 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.8% win rate (149 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.7% win rate (398 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.1% win rate (1,276 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (4,034 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.4% win rate (8,183 games)
  • 2500+: 41.0% win rate (2,866 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (48%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 46.5% win rate (5,292 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (10,852 games)
  • Rapid: 48.2% win rate (771 games)
  • Classical: 39.1% win rate (56 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (418 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (722 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (914 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (2,876 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (5,733 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (319 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,627 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (1,187 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Symmetrical Variation
48.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation
49.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Schara Gambit
45.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch
44.6%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 45.8% win rate for white (2.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.3%) outperforms Classical (42.6%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 90.8 (decisive), meaning 90.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 38.2%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 149 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 398 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 42.6%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 13.2% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-47.4%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.8%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 37.9%-43.8%) win rate for white (771 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation is statistically balanced with a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.