Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation
17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.
Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 9.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 17K
- Best context
- 52.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 90.8%
- Draws
- 9.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 47.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (52 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (74 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (130 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (229 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (418 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (722 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (120 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (914 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (2,876 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (220 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,121 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (5,733 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (319 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,627 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (1,187 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 51.4% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate?
Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation, Black wins 46.2%, draws 9.2% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation perform best?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (4.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (11K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (771 games).
How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 90.8 (decisive), meaning 90.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 149 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 398 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 8.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.4%, draws 9.5% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.0%, draws 13.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.5%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 10.0% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.2%, draws 10.9% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 771 Lichess games.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.2% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.