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Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.9%

45%55%
Floor50.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.

Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 9.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
39K
Best context
54.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
48.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
90.9%
Draws
9.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.7% at 0-999, 47.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (70 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (218 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (625 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (765 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (173 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,648 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,515 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (394 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (3,308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (6,086 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (5,941 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (9,765 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (828 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,908 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (180 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Symmetrical Variation
48.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation
49.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Schara Gambit
45.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation
50.3%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch scores 50.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.3% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate?

Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch, Black wins 46.3%, draws 9.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (21K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (2.3K games).

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a sharpness score of 90.9 (decisive), meaning 90.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 173 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 494 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 6.9% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 9.2% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 18.3% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.1%, draws 10.1% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.3%, draws 15.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.8%, draws 17.3% and loses 36.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 146 Lichess games.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.