Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation
10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.5%.
Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10K
- Best context
- 49.7% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.9% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 66.8% at 0-999, 44.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (90 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (119 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (214 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (348 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (415 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (679 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (151 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (597 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,432 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (276 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (889 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (2,017 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (240 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (950 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,110 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (145 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (236 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (57 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation scores 46.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 47.5% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate?
Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation perform best?
The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.5% (2.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (5.8K games) against 41.9% in Rapid (896 games).
How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation?
The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 228 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 625 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 7.5% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.2%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 296 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.2%, draws 7.3% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 896 Lichess games.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation a good opening?
The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.