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Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.7%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 47.5%Based on 10K games
0%46.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%5.3%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bg4
Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 47.5%), based on 10K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 70% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 69.7% win rate (15 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (76 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.4% win rate (228 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (625 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.2% win rate (1,254 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.1% win rate (2,321 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.8% win rate (3,160 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.7% win rate (2,206 games)
  • 2500+: 45.2% win rate (296 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (3,447 games)
  • Blitz: 44.2% win rate (5,795 games)
  • Rapid: 38.2% win rate (896 games)
  • Classical: 37.1% win rate (43 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (214 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (415 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (679 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (151 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (597 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (276 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (889 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (2,017 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (950 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (145 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (236 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Symmetrical Variation
48.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation
49.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Schara Gambit
45.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch
44.6%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.5%) outperforms Blitz (50.0%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation?

The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-59.6%) win rate for white, based on 228 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 625 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 42.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 296 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.1%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.1%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-57.3%) win rate for white (896 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Wagner Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.