Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation
11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.
Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 11K
- Best context
- 50.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.1%
- Draws
- 7.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 72.9% at 0-999, 33.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (73 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (126 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (176 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (257 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (461 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (969 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (151 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (982 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,451 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (248 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,887 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (1,990 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (263 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (819 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.8% expected score (142 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 48.2% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate?
Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation, Black wins 43.4%, draws 7.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation perform best?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (220 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (6.0K games) against 44.1% in Rapid (754 games).
How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation has a sharpness score of 92.1 (decisive), meaning 92.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 220 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 492 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 8.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 8.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 970 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.6%, draws 8.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.1%, draws 12.0% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 754 Lichess games.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation a good opening?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.4% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.