Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation
4.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 4.3K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.3K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.3K
- Best context
- 50.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.3%
- Draws
- 5.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 41.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (70 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (108 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (142 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (242 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (258 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (446 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (101 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (406 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (760 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (77 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (492 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (601 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (42 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (239 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (52 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.2% and 49.8% — from 4.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate?
Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 4.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation perform best?
The Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.1% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (2.3K games) against 40.8% in Rapid (317 games).
How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation?
The Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 201 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 446 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 815 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 46.2%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 298 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 36.9%, draws 7.7% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 317 Lichess games.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation a good opening?
The Tarrasch Defense: Swedish Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.6% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.