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Analyzer

Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit

530 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.5%Range (90% confident): 40.0% – 47.1%Based on 530 games
0%43.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.0% – 47.1%
Outcome Distribution
39.4%8.2%52.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...b5
Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit
Analyzen=530
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.2%

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit has a 43.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.0% and 47.1%), based on 530 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -24.2% · Breakpoint: 2000-2199

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.0 · Trap factor: -2.7 · n=530

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 39%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 73.3% win rate (6 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.9% win rate (52 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (119 games)
  • 2200-2499: 34.7% win rate (274 games)
  • 2500+: 38.8% win rate (72 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (42%), worst in Classical (33%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 41.7% win rate (86 games)
  • Blitz: 39.0% win rate (400 games)
  • Rapid: 38.8% win rate (41 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (3 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (225 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Symmetrical Variation
48.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation
49.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Schara Gambit
45.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch
44.6%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 530 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.4% win rate for white (274 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.4%) outperforms Bullet (48.6%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit?

The Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 274 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-56.5%) win rate for white (400 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Grünfeld Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-56.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.