8.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 49.0%), based on 8.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 53% → 35%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (367 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.8%) outperforms Classical (43.6%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 92.9 (decisive), meaning 92.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 43.0% (90% CI: 36.1%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 54.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 367 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.6%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 752 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 44.8% (90% CI: 41.3%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 558 Lichess games. Average game length is 52 moves with a 20.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.5%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.0%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.
In Rapid games, the Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-51.1%) win rate for white (712 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.7%.
The Tarrasch Defense: Prague Variation, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.