Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
1.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.
Measured over 1.1K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.1K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.3%
- Draws
- 7.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (84 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (283 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (180 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (252 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (28 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (136 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores 49.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.2% and 52.0% — from 1.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?
Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Black wins 45.7%, draws 7.7% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 58.2% (103 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (646 games) against 44.1% in Rapid (58 games).
How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 54.1%, draws 8.1% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 103 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 385 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 8.8% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 461 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.3%, draws 9.7% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 159 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.8%, draws 6.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 439 Lichess games.
What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 646 Lichess games.
Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.7% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.