1.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 52.0%), based on 1.1K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 38%
Best in Classical (56%), worst in Rapid (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (159 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.2%) outperforms Rapid (47.9%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 30.2%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 385 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 461 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 41.6%-49.4%) win rate for white (439 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.
In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (646 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.