967 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 51.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 53.7%), based on 967 Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~48%)
Best in Classical (71%), worst in Rapid (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 967 rated games from Lichess.
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 46.6% win rate for white (212 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (45.8%) outperforms Bullet (42.7%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a sharpness score of 91.0 (decisive), meaning 91.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 212 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 39.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 468 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 40.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 222 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 38.6%-46.9%) win rate for white (381 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-49.3%) win rate for white (556 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.
The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.8%-47.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.