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Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense

215K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.2%

45%55%
Floor50.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.

Measured over 215K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 215K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
215K
Best context
53.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
46.3% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.9% at 0-999, 48.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,535 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,282 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (269 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,064 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (4,812 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (974 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (9,898 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (11,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,538 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (15,772 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (19,932 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (4,962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (94 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (17,991 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (23,979 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (6,737 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (372 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (18,448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (21,790 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (5,523 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (244 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (13,342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (10,774 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (2,086 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (8,357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (3,562 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (461 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,268 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (183 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (3)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Pseudo-Tarrasch
50.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Pseudo-Tarrasch Bishop Attack
54.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation
44.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense scores 50.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.3% — from 215K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
215K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 215K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (26K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (98K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 55.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 427 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 92K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 98K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 902 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.2% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.