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Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.8%

45%60%
Floor52.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
11K
Best context
56.7% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Worst context
48.0% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.0 · Trap factor: +8.8 · 11K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.4% at 0-999, 61.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (143 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (191 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (333 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (439 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (863 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (295 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (950 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (509 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (367 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (716 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (464 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (80 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (681 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (438 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (51 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Symmetrical Variation
48.5%
Tarrasch Defense: Two Knights Variation
49.7%
Tarrasch Defense: Schara Gambit
45.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch
44.6%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit scores 52.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.0% and 53.6% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

Playing the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 61.7% (157 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (4.7K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (1.5K games).

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 374 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 972 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 59.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 157 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.8% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.