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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense

125K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.0%

40%55%
Floor44.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.2%.

Measured over 125K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 125K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
125K
Best context
48.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
42.0% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 44.8%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (2,002 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (3,822 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,354 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (7,905 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (3,509 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,434 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (10,803 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (4,527 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (12,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (6,105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (287 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (4,918 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (13,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (4,909 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (4,667 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (10,565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (3,138 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (3,987 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (5,916 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,086 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (3,147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (612 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (315 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense, Yefimov Gambit
57.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense scores 45.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.7% and 45.2% — from 125K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
125K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 125K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 47.0% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.7% in Blitz (68K games) against 43.7% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.1%, draws 7.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.2%, draws 9.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 938 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 68K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.7% of its games and loses 52.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.