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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense

125K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.0%Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 45.2%Based on 125K games
0%45.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 45.2%
Outcome Distribution
42.7%4.6%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense
Analyzen=125K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 45.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.7% and 45.2%), based on 125K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.0% win rate (7,260 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.9% win rate (14,834 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.5% win rate (20,684 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.3% win rate (23,184 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.2% win rate (23,373 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (18,536 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (11,019 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.1% win rate (5,497 games)
  • 2500+: 40.2% win rate (938 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (79 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (30,587 games)
  • Blitz: 42.2% win rate (67,976 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (25,661 games)
  • Classical: 38.4% win rate (1,022 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (2,002 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (3,822 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,354 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (7,905 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (3,509 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,434 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (10,803 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (4,527 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (12,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (6,105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (287 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (4,918 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (13,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (4,909 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (4,667 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (10,565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (3,138 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (3,987 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (5,916 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,086 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (3,147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (612 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (315 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense, Yefimov Gambit
57.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 125K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (56.5%) by -2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 938 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.2%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.1%) win rate for white (68K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.4%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense has a 55.3% (90% CI: 52.8%-57.9%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.