Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.0%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 52.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.9%
- Draws
- 8.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 41.7% at 0-999, 36.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (43 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (237 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (217 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (581 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (775 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (112 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (990 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (2,254 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (354 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,535 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (3,599 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (650 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,379 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (2,591 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (507 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,102 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (1,357 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (178 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (134 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.6% expected score (47 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 49.0% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation, Black wins 44.3%, draws 8.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (1.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (11K games) against 46.4% in Rapid (1.8K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a sharpness score of 91.9 (decisive), meaning 91.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 483 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 9.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 37.7%, draws 12.0% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 33.3%, draws 10.6% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 183 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.3%, draws 9.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.7%, draws 9.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.3% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.