Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation
112K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.
Measured over 112K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 112K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 112K
- Best context
- 53.6% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.0% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.6% at 0-999, 52.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (93 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (597 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (291 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (68 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,716 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,548 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (278 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (4,208 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (5,395 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (984 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (53 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,251 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (13,459 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,436 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (169 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (7,254 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (20,702 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (4,128 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (332 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (6,553 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (17,552 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,730 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (173 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,513 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,669 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (965 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (888 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (314 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation scores 50.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 50.6% — from 112K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 112K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation, White wins 47.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 112K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (3.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (66K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (13K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 55.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 152 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 956 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.2%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.6%, draws 7.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 47.0%, draws 8.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 66K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.0%, draws 7.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.7%, draws 10.2% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 746 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.6% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.