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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense

605K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.6%Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 46.7%Based on 605K games
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%4.6%51.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e5
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense
Analyzen=605K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 46.7%), based on 605K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.7 · Trap factor: +7.3 · n=605K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 30%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.6% win rate (27,452 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (67,931 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (105,929 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.9% win rate (123,155 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.5% win rate (113,986 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (84,101 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.8% win rate (49,806 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (26,552 games)
  • 2500+: 30.4% win rate (6,381 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.9% win rate (79 games)
  • Bullet: 46.1% win rate (104,071 games)
  • Blitz: 44.2% win rate (349,171 games)
  • Rapid: 43.4% win rate (146,931 games)
  • Classical: 40.9% win rate (5,041 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (6,880 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (15,222 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (5,319 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (12,613 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (38,593 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (16,522 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (16,442 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (59,240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (29,396 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (837 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (16,969 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (68,001 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (36,533 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (1,634 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (15,523 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (66,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (30,453 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (1,394 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (13,815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (51,173 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (18,455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (653 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (11,401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (30,674 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (7,514 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (215 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (6,979 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (17,090 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (2,418 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (3,449 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (2,580 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (321 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit
47.7%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 605K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (106K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.2%) outperforms Bullet (50.2%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 106K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 37.5% (90% CI: 36.5%-38.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 32.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (104K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (349K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate for white (147K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.4%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.