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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit

56K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Bxc4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.7%

45%55%
Floor49.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.

Measured over 56K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 56K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
56K
Best context
52.7% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
46.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −0.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.4 · Trap factor: +9.3 · 56K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.0% at 0-999, 52.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (2,465 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (2,095 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (4,442 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (2,092 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,326 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (5,817 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (3,072 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (2,179 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,876 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (4,870 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,405 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (3,107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,359 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (844 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,429 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (431 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit scores 49.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.4% and 50.1% — from 56K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
56K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 56K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (8.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (29K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 991 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 45.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 118 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 601 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.7% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.