Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation
18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.8%.
Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 18K
- Best context
- 52.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.8% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.8%
- Draws
- 6.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 46.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (129 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (190 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (324 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (538 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (144 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (767 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,449 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (333 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (1,142 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (3,175 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (648 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (54 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,112 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (3,451 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (715 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,092 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (1,642 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (296 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (384 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (125 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 47.8% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (365 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.3% in Blitz (11K games) against 44.7% in Rapid (2.2K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 365 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.0%, draws 9.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 526 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.3%, draws 8.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.9%, draws 13.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 143 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 49.7%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.