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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense

34K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.5%Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 47.0%Based on 34K games
0%46.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 47.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%4.6%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Be6
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense
Analyzen=34K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 46.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 47.0%), based on 34K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~45%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.2% win rate (2,181 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (5,408 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.0% win rate (7,330 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (6,516 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.8% win rate (3,989 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (2,376 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.7% win rate (1,861 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (2,847 games)
  • 2500+: 46.1% win rate (1,287 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.4% win rate (14 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (8,138 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (17,214 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (8,054 games)
  • Classical: 39.4% win rate (375 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (479 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,035 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (3,019 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (1,337 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,775 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (2,230 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (3,042 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (2,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (135 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (1,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,783 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (846 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (441 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (525 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (212 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 20.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (838 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,803 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (858 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (397 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 34K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (7.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.6%) outperforms Bullet (50.8%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.8%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.7%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.5%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-59.6%) win rate for white (375 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.