Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line
3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
58.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 60.1%.
Measured over 3.3K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 10.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.3K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.3K
- Best context
- 54.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 89.6%
- Draws
- 10.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 61.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 82.3% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.0% expected score (25 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.8% expected score (60 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (120 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (176 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 69.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (224 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (414 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (454 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,268 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.6% expected score (209 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.6% expected score (217 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line scores 58.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.2% and 60.1% — from 3.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line, White wins 53.4%, draws 10.4% and loses 36.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 64.3% (431 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.6% in Blitz (2.2K games) against 65.2% in Rapid (107 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a sharpness score of 89.6 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 61.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 31.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.0%. It rests on 105 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 56.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 316 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.6%, draws 8.4% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 673 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 11.8% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 58.2%, draws 12.1% and loses 29.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.3%. It rests on 431 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 58.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 34.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.6%, draws 12.0% and loses 37.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 58.5%, draws 13.4% and loses 28.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.2%. It rests on 107 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.4% of its games and loses 36.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.