Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation
2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.
Measured over 2.8K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.8K
- Best context
- 50.5% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 16.7% at 0-999, 55.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (52 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (60 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (106 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (128 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (122 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (340 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (77 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (157 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (540 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (98 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 19.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (205 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (429 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (83 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (88 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (138 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 71.6% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 52.3% — from 2.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation, White wins 48.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (719 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (1.7K games) against 50.0% in Rapid (325 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 44.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 122 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 268 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 545 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 805 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 719 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 250 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 764 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.5%, draws 9.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 325 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.1% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.