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Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation

595K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Bg5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.5%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.

Measured over 595K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 595K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
595K
Best context
55.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
49.0% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 53.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,735 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (426 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (6,910 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (7,995 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,883 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (15,677 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (24,120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (5,430 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (30,661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (54,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (13,187 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (507 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (40,186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (82,236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20,727 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (37,413 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (84,325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (22,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,415 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (25,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (52,081 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (13,451 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (449 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (16,358 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (20,579 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (3,555 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (6,268 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,244 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (197 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.6% — from 595K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
595K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 595K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.1% (41K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.6% in Blitz (329K games) against 52.0% in Rapid (81K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 98K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 144K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 40.0%, draws 26.5% and loses 33.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 502 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 181K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 329K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 81K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.2%, draws 9.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.9% of its games and loses 44.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.