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Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation

62K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.4%

40%55%
Floor46.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.7%.

Measured over 62K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 62K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
62K
Best context
48.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
45.0% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (290 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (513 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,005 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (558 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,897 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (4,758 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,933 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (7,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (2,807 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (3,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (7,564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (3,254 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (195 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,376 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (5,848 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (195 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,445 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (3,930 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (927 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (360 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (405 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation
50.1%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation scores 46.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.7% — from 62K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
62K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 62K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 47.0% (8.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (35K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 944 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.4%, draws 7.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.9%, draws 12.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 784 Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.8%, draws 7.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 611 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 51.3%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.