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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation

58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.9%Range (90% confident): 45.6% – 46.2%Based on 58K games
0%45.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.6% – 46.2%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%4.6%51.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bb4+
Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation
Analyzen=58K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 45.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.6% and 46.2%), based on 58K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.6% · Bullet best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 42% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.7% win rate (580 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (2,193 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.7% win rate (5,350 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.4% win rate (10,236 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.5% win rate (13,241 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.5% win rate (12,382 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (8,967 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (4,382 games)
  • 2500+: 39.1% win rate (893 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 59.6% win rate (132 games)
  • Bullet: 44.4% win rate (18,827 games)
  • Blitz: 43.4% win rate (30,858 games)
  • Rapid: 42.0% win rate (8,020 games)
  • Classical: 41.8% win rate (387 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (280 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (771 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (317 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (1,846 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (2,727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (741 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (3,422 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (5,201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,521 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,540 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (6,761 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,778 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (3,805 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (6,655 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,755 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 79.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (5,227 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,344 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,402 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (445 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (502 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (382 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation, Quiet Variation
53.0%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 58K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (5.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (38.6%) by 13.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 580 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 893 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 38.6% (90% CI: 31.8%-45.6%) win rate for white (132 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.8%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.8%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-55.5%) win rate for white (387 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.