Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation
445 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.5%.
Measured over 445 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 445 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 445
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.3%
- Draws
- 5.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1000-1199, 49.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (116 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (119 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation scores 53.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 57.5% — from 445 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 445+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 445 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 61.7% (84 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 151 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 54.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 151 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 323 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.7% of its games and loses 43.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.