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Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line

253K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.7%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.

Measured over 253K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 253K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
253K
Best context
54.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
51.2% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.5% at 0-999, 52.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,018 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,323 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (4,831 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (775 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (10,714 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (15,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (2,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (17,244 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (33,293 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (6,011 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (18,592 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (45,757 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (9,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (14,199 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (30,906 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (7,241 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (9,986 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (12,092 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,959 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,279 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line scores 52.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.8% — from 253K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
253K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 253K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (53K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (144K games) against 53.0% in Rapid (29K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 374 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.3%, draws 7.7% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.1%, draws 11.8% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 144K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 7.6% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.4%, draws 10.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.9% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.