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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation

183K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Bxf6
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.0%

45%60%
Floor53.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.

Measured over 183K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 183K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
183K
Best context
59.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
48.8% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +17.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.9% at 0-999, 61.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (726 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (713 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (125 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,399 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,081 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (818 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (4,718 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (7,700 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (2,369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (9,766 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (14,719 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (4,447 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (13,873 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (25,064 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (6,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (327 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (14,550 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (29,064 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (6,442 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (9,716 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (12,314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (3,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (6,181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (2,515 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (219 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (591 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.2% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.2% — from 183K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
183K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 183K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 59.4% (8.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (95K games) against 50.5% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 56.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.0%, draws 7.2% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 613 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 700 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 95K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.6% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.