Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation

29K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
6...Nc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.8%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.

Measured over 29K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 9.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 29K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
29K
Best context
50.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
46.4% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
90.3%
Draws
9.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.4%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (244 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (457 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (116 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (465 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (925 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (234 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (1,669 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (415 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,645 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (687 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,286 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,244 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (652 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,884 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (6,604 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (841 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,224 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (113 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 49.2% — from 29K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
29K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation, Black wins 43.9%, draws 9.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 29K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (819 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (19K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (2.9K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation has a sharpness score of 90.3 (decisive), meaning 90.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 159 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 460 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 819 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.5%, draws 8.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 9.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.7%, draws 11.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.9%, draws 14.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.3%, draws 10.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.5%, draws 11.8% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 18.3% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 138 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.9% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.