TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation

7.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 48.4%Based on 7.6K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
36.4%22.1%41.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bxc5
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation
Analyzen=7.6K
Avg Length49 moves
Sharpness78%
Draw Rate22.1%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 48.4%), based on 7.6K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.0% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 26%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.9% win rate (27 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.9% win rate (91 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.9% win rate (255 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (587 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.3% win rate (1,240 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.7% win rate (2,965 games)
  • 2500+: 26.1% win rate (2,463 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (38%), worst in Classical (25%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 37.7% win rate (1,703 games)
  • Blitz: 36.6% win rate (5,186 games)
  • Rapid: 32.8% win rate (643 games)
  • Classical: 25.1% win rate (108 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (397 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (90 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (840 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (125 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (434 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,290 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (787 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,456 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (182 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (38 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 41.5% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 45.5% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.9%) outperforms Classical (27.9%) by 15.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a sharpness score of 77.9 (drawish), meaning 77.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 49 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 41.9%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 255 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 38.6%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 587 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 11.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.6%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 12.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 14.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 33.6% (90% CI: 32.0%-35.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 60 moves with a 40.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 38.0%-41.9%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 22.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-44.1%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 20.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 36.7% (90% CI: 33.6%-39.8%) win rate for white (643 Lichess games). Draw rate is 30.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation has a 27.9% (90% CI: 21.1%-35.1%) win rate for white (108 Lichess games). Draw rate is 47.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation is statistically balanced with a 41.5% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.