Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit

516K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
4...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

42.4%

35%55%
Floor42.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.5%.

Measured over 516K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 516K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
516K
Best context
45.0% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
36.0% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −8.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.5%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (11,525 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (15,751 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (5,667 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.0% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (31,734 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (30,633 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12,201 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (276 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (43,908 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (38,119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (15,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (49,208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (39,546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (14,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (821 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (304 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (50,571 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (31,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (8,505 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (612 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (41,225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (20,409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (3,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (169 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (22,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (8,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (979 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (10,554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,270 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (1,243 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (453 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit scores 42.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.2% and 42.5% — from 516K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
516K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit, Black wins 40.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 516K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 44.6% (33K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 42.3% in Blitz (188K games) against 41.4% in Rapid (61K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 98K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.2%, draws 7.8% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 37.0%, draws 1.7% and loses 61.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 263K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 40.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 188K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 34.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 61.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.7% of its games and loses 56.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.