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Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit

516K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score42.4%Range (90% confident): 42.2% – 42.5%Based on 516K games
0%42.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.2% – 42.5%
Outcome Distribution
40.7%3.3%56.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit
Analyzen=516K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 42.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.2% and 42.5%), based on 516K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -8.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.1% win rate (33,120 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.4% win rate (74,881 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.1% win rate (98,369 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.3% win rate (104,355 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.9% win rate (91,234 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.9% win rate (65,720 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.9% win rate (32,378 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.5% win rate (14,044 games)
  • 2500+: 38.2% win rate (1,708 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in Classical (34%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.0% win rate (1,518 games)
  • Bullet: 41.3% win rate (262,728 games)
  • Blitz: 40.3% win rate (188,016 games)
  • Rapid: 39.3% win rate (61,192 games)
  • Classical: 34.1% win rate (2,355 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (11,525 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (15,751 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (5,667 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.0% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (31,734 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (30,633 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12,201 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (276 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (43,908 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (38,119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (15,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (49,208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (39,546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (14,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (821 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (304 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (50,571 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (31,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (8,505 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (612 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (41,225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (20,409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (3,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (169 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (22,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (8,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (979 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (10,554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,270 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (1,243 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (453 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 516K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (98K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (61.3%) outperforms Blitz (55.7%) by 5.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 104K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.1%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 61.3% (90% CI: 59.2%-63.3%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.2%) win rate for white (263K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (188K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.8%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 61.3% (90% CI: 59.7%-63.0%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.