Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation
3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.3%.
Measured over 3.8K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.8K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.8K
- Best context
- 56.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 51.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 60.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (57 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (68 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (173 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (220 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 65.3% expected score (41 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (240 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (536 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (140 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (244 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (738 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (185 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (234 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (597 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.6% expected score (95 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (58 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation scores 52.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 53.3% — from 3.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation, White wins 49.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 57.2% (929 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (2.2K games) against 53.9% in Rapid (476 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 131 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 441 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 930 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.2%, draws 6.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.8%, draws 6.8% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 929 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.2%, draws 12.2% and loses 35.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 101 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.7%, draws 8.3% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 476 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.3% of its games and loses 45.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.