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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation

27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.2%Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 45.7%Based on 27K games
0%45.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 45.7%
Outcome Distribution
42.8%4.7%52.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bb4
Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation
Analyzen=27K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 45.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.7% and 45.7%), based on 27K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (63 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (498 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.1% win rate (1,789 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.7% win rate (4,394 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.8% win rate (6,930 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (7,020 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.7% win rate (3,948 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (1,807 games)
  • 2500+: 35.2% win rate (287 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (5,566 games)
  • Blitz: 42.4% win rate (16,473 games)
  • Rapid: 41.2% win rate (4,490 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (206 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (242 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (588 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (966 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (229 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (2,664 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (645 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,308 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (4,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (4,426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (707 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (759 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (429 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,228 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (118 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.6% expected score (166 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (4.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.7%) outperforms Classical (50.4%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 47.1%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 498 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 287 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.8%) win rate for white (5.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.3%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-56.1%) win rate for white (206 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.