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Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation

27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.2%

40%55%
Floor44.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.7%.

Measured over 27K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 27K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
27K
Best context
48.1% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
42.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.8% at 0-999, 40.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (242 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (588 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (966 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (229 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (2,664 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (645 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,308 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (4,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (4,426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (707 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (759 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (429 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,228 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (118 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.6% expected score (166 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation scores 45.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.7% and 45.7% — from 27K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
27K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 27K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 46.8% (1.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.9% in Blitz (16K games) against 44.1% in Rapid (4.5K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 498 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.2%, draws 8.5% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 287 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.7%, draws 8.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 206 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.8% of its games and loses 52.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.