Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System
468 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.
Measured over 468 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 468 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 468
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 1000-1199, 73.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (102 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (75 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.3% and 52.8% — from 468 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 468+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 468 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 52.4% (84 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (275 games) against 41.5% in Rapid (57 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 148 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 132 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 275 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.