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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System

468 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score49.1%Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 52.8%Based on 468 games
0%49.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%4.6%48.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Nd5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System
Analyzen=468
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 49.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.3% and 52.8%), based on 468 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 77%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.5% win rate (15 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.7% win rate (84 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.1% win rate (148 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.1% win rate (138 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (72 games)
  • 2500+: 76.5% win rate (7 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (27%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (132 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (275 games)
  • Rapid: 36.8% win rate (57 games)
  • Classical: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399———
1400-1599———
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (75 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 468 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (148 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.6%) outperforms Bullet (45.3%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 51.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 148 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 49.1% (90% CI: 42.2%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 138 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 45.3% (90% CI: 38.3%-52.4%) win rate for white (132 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-53.6%) win rate for white (275 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System is slightly favors black with a 48.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.