Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation
2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 2.2K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 7.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.2K
- Best context
- 54.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 52.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.8%
- Draws
- 7.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 78.6% at 1000-1199, 60.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (125 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (85 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (324 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (54 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (97 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (540 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (96 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (152 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (510 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (47 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 54.3% — from 2.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation, White wins 48.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 61.2% (88 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 53.8% in Rapid (198 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 92.8 (decisive), meaning 92.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 164 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.7%, draws 8.4% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 471 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 736 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.6%, draws 8.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 697 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 423 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.5%, draws 7.9% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.4%, draws 8.8% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 198 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.9% of its games and loses 43.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.