Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation
11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.
Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 11K
- Best context
- 51.8% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.5%
- Draws
- 6.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 44.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 21.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (136 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (84 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (331 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (637 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (41 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (438 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,216 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (274 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (673 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (3,040 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (492 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (607 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,752 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (187 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (128 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (126 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation scores 50.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 51.1% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation, Black wins 47.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (4.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (7.9K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (1.0K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 223 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 7.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.6%, draws 9.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 260 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.3%, draws 10.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.